The risk of unexpectedly shrinking in the first quarter still exists in the risk of economic recession
Xinhua News Agency, Washington, April 28 (International Observation) In the first quarter, the risk of unexpectedly shrinking the US economic recession still existed in the data from Xinhua News Agency reporter Xiong Maoling Xuyuan. ) The annual rate calculation decreased%, the first time since the second quarter of 2020. The U.S. economy is facing multiple challenges such as high inflation, shortage of labor, interruption of supply chain, decline in external demand, and the continued raging of mutant new crown virus. Although economists generally expect that the US economy will return to the growth track in the second quarter, in the context of high inflation, the Federal Reserve is difficult to achieve economic "soft landing" by tightening monetary policy. Some experts believe that there will still be risk of decline in the US economy in the future.
Why does it shrink unexpectedly? The US economic performance in the first quarter is far less than market expectations. Earlier Bloomberg questionnaires showed that economists believe that the US economy can achieve a 1%growth in the first quarter.
Data show that in the first quarter, the decline in the US economy was mainly expanded by trade deficit, the decline in private inventory investment, and a sharp decline in government expenditure. In the season, the US imports have increased, exports have declined, the trade deficit has expanded rapidly, and net exports drag out economic growth by a percentage point; private inventory investment drags a percentage point; federal government and state and local governments have declined, which jointly dragged down a percentage point.
The U.S. Department of Commerce pointed out that the spread of Omikon poisonous strains increased the new crown cases, which led to the continued restrictions on or interrupted by operating activities in some regions of the United States.
At the same time, some federal government relief clauses have expired or gradually decreased, and assistance to enterprises, states and local governments, and families decreased.
In the first quarter, about 70%of the personal consumption expenditure of about 70%of the US economic growth was increased by%, which contributed a percentage point to economic growth; non -residential fixed asset investment growth of enterprises’ investment conditions increased by%and contributed a percentage point to economic growth. Wells Fargo Securities Economist Tim Lunlan pointed out that net exports, corporate inventory and government expenditure have offset the promotion of economic growth in economic growth. Analysts said that due to the continuous high inflation began to weaken consumer purchasing power, and federal financial support is increasingly decreasing, the continuous growth of personal consumption expenditure needs to be observed. Risk of recession? The American GDP adopts an annualized algorithm, which may enlarge the actual degree of volatility of economic growth.
The Wall Street Journal reports that many economists believe that the US economy will return to a moderate growth in the second quarter. Generally speaking, negative growth in the economy for two consecutive quarters will be regarded as a technical recession.
Nevertheless, the US economy is facing severe challenges such as high inflation, inadequate labor market supply, repeated epidemic and Russian -Ukraine conflicts.
In the context of the Fed intends to accelerate interest rate hikes to respond to inflation, the US economy still has the risk of recession.
According to data from the US Department of Labor, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased year -on -year increases for six consecutive months than 6%. In March, CPI rose by%year -on -year, and the increase of more than 40 years was refreshed. Gary Hev Bauer, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute of International Economic Research in the US Think Tank, told Xinhua News Agency that the economic assistance plan launched by the Bayeng government last year and the Federal Reserve’s super loose monetary policy were the main promoters of U.S. inflation.
In the middle of last year, the labor market had been in short supply. The tightness of the labor market was also a signal of inflation. However, the Fed did not take action to curb inflation in time.
The Fed started the interest rate hike period since March this year. As the inflation situation intensified, many Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for adopting a more radical interest rate hike strategy.
The Fed’s Interim President Powell recently hinted that the Fed may raise interest rates at 50 basis points at the regular meeting meeting in early May.
Powell said the Fed is committed to reducing the inflation rate to 2%of the target with the tools in the hands, but it is not easy to achieve "soft landing" and it will be very challenging. Dian Swanker, chief economist of Chicago Junjun Certified Public Accountants, believes that how the Fed’s challenge is to cool down to domestic demand without bringing too much impact on the labor market. thing. Hef Bower said that there is no historical experience that the Fed can reduce the inflation rate to 2%without the economic recession when the inflation rate is so high. "The United States will face economic recession. This is very certain. The only problem is when the economic recession really begins." Destmond Rachman, an economist at the American Institute of Enterprise Research, also believes that the US economy may have recession at the end of this year. Essence He told Xinhua News Agency that the US debt yield curve recently reversed, and the two -year Treasury bond yield exceeding the 10 -year Treasury bond yield is unusual. From a historical perspective, this reversal foreshadowed 6 to 24 months. Internal economic recession will occur. Rahman is worried that the Fed’s tightening monetary policy may pierce the current US stock market and property market bubble. (Responsible editor: Cui Yue, Yang Mu) Share let more people see it.